Amazon deforestation: what happened in 2025-2026?

For the year ending July 2026, Brazil's government reported 3,335 square kilometres of Amazon deforestation — the lowest figure since satellite monitoring began in 1988.¹ That's a 42% drop from the previous year and proof that political choices, not fate, determine whether forests stand or fall.

The numbers: a record low

Between August 2025 and July 2026, 3,335 square kilometres of Amazon rainforest were cleared in Brazil. That's down from 5,731 square kilometres the previous year — a 42% decline.¹

To put that in perspective: the previous record low was 4,571 square kilometres in 2011-12. Annual losses peaked at nearly 30,000 square kilometres in the mid-1990s. The 2026 figure is less than one-eighth of that peak.

The data comes from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which uses satellite imagery to detect forest clearing. The figures are preliminary but consistent with trends INPE has tracked throughout the year.

What changed: policy, not luck

The decline wasn't accidental. It came from specific policy decisions made after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office in January 2023.

Lula revived the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon, known as PPCDAm. He originally launched the plan in 2004 during his first administration. It worked then — deforestation fell by more than 80% between 2004 and 2012 — but his successor, Jair Bolsonaro, shelved it when he took office in 2019.³

The plan has two main components: satellite monitoring and enforcement. Brazil's space agency uses real-time satellite data to detect illegal clearing. When clearing is spotted, environmental agencies issue fines, seize equipment and prosecute offenders.

Under Bolsonaro, those penalties stopped. Fines were issued but not collected. Enforcement agencies lost funding. Illegal loggers and ranchers operated with impunity. Deforestation spiked.

Lula restored the enforcement system. Fines are now collected. Agencies have funding. The result is visible in the data: deforestation fell sharply in 2023, dropped further in 2024, and hit a record low in 2026.

Read more about the broader picture: Amazon rainforest deforestation.

The role of satellite monitoring

Brazil's satellite monitoring system, operated by INPE, is one of the most advanced in the world. It can detect clearing down to individual hectares and provide near-real-time alerts.

The system works because it's transparent. Anyone can see the data. When a forest area is cleared, INPE publishes the coordinates. Environmental agencies can respond, and independent researchers can verify the government's claims.

But monitoring only works if there's enforcement. Satellites can see illegal clearing, but they can't stop it. That requires boots on the ground, fines that hurt and a government willing to prosecute powerful agricultural interests.

The Bolsonaro administration had the monitoring. It chose not to enforce. The Lula administration enforces. That's the difference.

Where the decline was uneven

Not every Brazilian state saw the same progress. Pará, the state with the most clearing, recorded 1,130 square kilometres in 2026. Mato Grosso followed with 849 square kilometres, and Amazonas with 525 square kilometres.

Roraima was the only state where clearing did not fall. The reason: illegal gold mining. Enforcement focused on cattle ranching and logging, but mining operations — often tied to organized crime — proved harder to shut down.

The Cerrado, Brazil's tropical savanna biome, also saw clearing drop 24% to a record low of around 5,517 square kilometres.⁴ But that's still 5,517 square kilometres lost. Progress is relative.

The political risk: Brazil's election

The data was released on October 16, 2026 — nine days before Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25. Timing matters in politics, and this timing was no accident.

Lula faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, in a tight race. Polls show them neck and neck.³ Flavio Bolsonaro's platform includes a pledge to end "illegal deforestation" by 2029 and focus enforcement on organized crime rather than small farmers. That sounds progressive, but the framing matters.

Lula's approach treats all illegal clearing as enforcement targets. Bolsonaro's framing distinguishes between "good" deforestation (small farmers) and "bad" deforestation (organized crime). That distinction creates room for enforcement to weaken again.

If Bolsonaro wins, there's no guarantee the PPCDAm plan survives. His father's administration dismantled it once. His son's platform doesn't explicitly commit to keeping it.

The El Niño threat

Even if enforcement continues, nature is a wildcard. A super El Niño is brewing in the Pacific, and climate models predict severe drought in the Amazon over the next 12 to 18 months.³

Drought makes forests more flammable. Fires spread faster. Even protected areas burn. The 2015-16 El Niño drove massive fire-driven forest loss across the Amazon. The coming one could be worse.

Fire-driven loss doesn't show up the same way in INPE's deforestation data, which focuses on permanent conversion to agriculture. But ecologically, the damage is real. Repeated fires degrade forests, kill trees and turn carbon sinks into carbon sources.

Learn more about fire's role: Deforestation in 2026: The Latest Data.

Is zero deforestation by 2030 achievable?

Brazil has committed to zero illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. The 2026 data suggests that goal is within reach — if enforcement continues and the political will holds.

Experts quoted by the Associated Press say it's achievable without compromising Brazil's economy.² The country's agricultural sector doesn't need to clear more forest. There are millions of hectares of already-cleared degraded pasture that could be brought into production instead.

The question is political, not technical. Brazil knows how to stop deforestation. It did it before, between 2004 and 2012. It's doing it again now. The barrier isn't knowledge or capacity. It's whether the next government chooses to continue.

See what works: deforestation solutions that work.

What 2025-2026 proves

The Amazon data from 2025-2026 proves three things.

First, political choices determine deforestation rates. When Brazil enforces forest protection laws, clearing drops. When it stops enforcing, clearing spikes. The same forests, the same satellite systems, the same laws — the only variable is whether the government chooses to act.

Second, satellite monitoring works, but only with enforcement. Transparency matters. Real-time data matters. But neither stops a chainsaw. What stops chainsaws is fines, prosecutions and the credible threat that illegal clearing will cost more than it's worth.

Third, progress is fragile. A tight election and a brewing El Niño could reverse years of gains in months. The trajectory isn't locked in. It's a choice that has to be made again and again, by every government, every year.

The 2026 numbers are the best since 1988. The question is whether 2027 will be better or worse.

The road to 2030

Brazil's PPCDAm plan runs through the end of Lula's term in 2027. If he wins re-election or if his successor continues the plan, zero deforestation by 2030 is plausible.

If enforcement weakens — whether from a change in government, pressure from agricultural lobbies or budget cuts to environmental agencies — the progress unravels. Deforestation doesn't take a decade to reverse. It takes months.

The Amazon has lost nearly 20% of its original forest cover. Scientists warn that losing 20-25% could trigger a tipping point where the rainforest converts to savanna. Brazil is close to that threshold.

The 2025-2026 data is good news. But good news isn't the same as a trend. It's a snapshot of what happens when a government enforces the law. The next snapshot depends on whether that enforcement continues.

Watch the film to see what's at stake. Then choose how the story ends.

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